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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd