🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still